[steve-fredlund]

25 people left but any ICM considerations? How many get paid?

In general with 16 bigs and UTG with TT, I’m just open shoving pre-flop. If I choose to just raise, it would take a very unique spot for me to lay it down with that stack size.

As played, you open UTG and UTG+1 3-bets, both of you with “get it in” size stacks. That should make the HJ range (even with 15 bigs) quite strong.

You mentioned the two options of fold or call all-in; we actually have a few more chips than HJ so the third alternative of re-shove is another option. For me, as played, this is a fold or shove spot for sure.

It feels nitty to fold for sure, but what are they doing this with? I mean we have 16 bigs and min raising UTG…. UTG+1 should be strong to 3-bet us here; likely 99+ and AQ+ I would think. The HJ should really be quite strong here even with a short stack unless they are a ‘gambler’ and would make this play with some suited connector/suited gapper type hands.

I will let a wizard run the numbers here, but I think UTG+1 should be 99+ and AQ+ and if HJ is pretty solid, I would expect them to have TT+, AK because they should not expect to have much fold equity here. Taking out the TT leaves me up against 18 combos of over-pairs and 16 combos of AK.

I can fold here and have 14-15 bigs left or get it in. We may have the odds mathematically when UTG+1 calls or folds behind us. I guess tournament situation would dictate if this is an ICM/low volatility stage or a building/consolidating time where we may need a bit more gamble and hope that enough of the time we are up against hands like 99, AJ/AQ/AK, and a few random 87 suiteds

Excited about the wizard breakdowns.

[arw]

Without giving anything away,

@SteveFredlund , your comment is solid and accurate. I would say you’re a wizard.

utg + 1 had a hand in the range 99+ and AQ+…you also mentioned that they are likely on the strong side. Also correct.

highjack had a wider range than you might expect. I agree that TT+ and AK seems correct but this particular opponent 4-bet with a weaker hand than that.

[binkley]

I think this is a fold if UTG and HJ are competent players. By opening UTG, we are representing a strong range. So UTG+1 is representing a strong range as well by 3-betting. Now if HJ is properly recognizing the strength that both UTG and UTG+1, the 4-bet shove seems quite nutted.

UTG+1 and HJ both have uncapped ranges that easily include hands (JJ+) that dominate TT. Even their weaker hands (AK, AQ, AJs) are flips. The best case scenario is that they both have AK. But I think too often you are against at least one overpair.

Fold here and we lose 2bbs. But we still have a playable 15bb stack.

[arw]

Great comment,

“the 4-bet seems quite nutted” is the same assumption I made, however, it wasn’t true for this opponent. They jammed with pocket 33, a hand that I fold 95% of the time, one that is strong, but never ahead in this spot.

the 3-better actually had the best hand. The size of their raise is telling. They only raised me 450 more. How do I ever fold pre-flop to this raise as the UTG opener? He/she wants me to call, possibly begging me to call. The size of the 3-bet also allows more stacks at the table to jam over the top, thinking they have fold equity. Knowing what I know after seeing his/her hand, I’m surprised they didn’t say “Want a cookie?”

[binkley]

The click-back 3bet presents a dilemma. It’s presenting such great odds, in theory you should call with most of your range. But it can represent such strength you don’t feel great about it. But folding seems so silly and exploitable.

[steve-fredlund]

great stuff @ARW & @Binkley

[fivebyfive]

<div>I tend to agree with some of the thoughts here. Those early position min-clickish raises are terrifying. My read and decision here is based entirely on what I think of UTG+1. If I think they’re competent, I’m folding. I’m not that worried about the squeeze from HJ. I’d be calling an all-in from that player with this holding without the intervening min-click. But in my experience, this type of raise screams value (QQ+). I don’t even think it generally includes AK because I think that is a shove (which is part of the problem of this play). So I’m folding. If we’re not folding in this spot, then I think we should be shoving 1010 in the first place. It’s not a hand that is very comfortable to take to a flop, so we’re not all that excited to get a bunch of callers and it is not one that can weather a lot of action like this. So I think ultimately, with this stack, I much prefer a shove pre.
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But back to the hand, I think this min-click approach with premium hands is becoming too common in the lower stakes and it is something we should be on the lookout for. It is fairly transparent. And I’ve yet to see the player pool adjust much. Until I see people start doing this with hands like 77 or AJ, it is easily exploitable with tight folds.

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When I’m faced with this kind of bet without the intervening squeeze, I’m calling to see three, knowing that they may be committed if I spike a 10. But it is a hand I’m playing slowly and potentially mucking to a cbet, even if the board comes all undercards.

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