[steve-fredlund]

Wow; this one got big quick after starting the hand with 300 big blinds, it’s hard to imagine getting it in there with ultimately just a 7.

As you mentioned, I think the flop is the most interesting street; I can see a check back as a way of under-repping your hand and taking the free card, while also avoiding a check raise which could be pretty common given that board which is generally better for their range (I think — enter wizards). I think the flop call is fine but also a re-raise is fine if willing to get it in there (not that you would shove, but if you re-raise you are pretty committed with all the equity you likely have. For these reasons I like the check back early in the tourney (but I’m pretty nitty early in tourneys).

As played, I do think you need to call turn since you only need about 20% equity which you very likely have (wizards can do the math).

The river sort of sucks; do you think a 7 is every good here against an opponent’s range who would be limping behind and then calling a raise preflop? Could be a bunch of 44,55,66,77,88,99 or suited T9,98,87,76,65,54, all of which beat you and may have taken this line. I guess you are ahead of some Ax suited hands if you think they would have limped them pre.

I didn’t add any value here but I do like processing it; excited for the wizards responses. Thx for posting Louie.

[sirgasleak]

Wow what a puke-worthy turn card.

1) I’m not crazy about the squeeze pre to be honest. With no info on MP, we have to put all the good Kx in his range so there’s risk of domination. And since we’re super deep with no antes, there’s no need to build a pot with a marginal hand. I’m happy to call and see a flop multiway with a suited King, but folding isn’t bad either.

2) Definitely betting flop and I like the sizing. With the squeeze pre we’re repping a hand that doesn’t hit this flop, like an overpair, and unbeknownst to villain we’ve basically smashed it. Worst case is we’re up against a set, in which case we have a plethora of outs. Let’s build a pot and rep an overpair looking for protection. Since we block so many draws, his x/r is very polarizing: sets/2P or complete air. Possibly pairs like 99/44/8×/6×/5× looking to fold out the AK/AQ stuff in our range. I like the call to see if he’ll barrel the turn.

3) Gross turn card as we’re now drawing dead to almost his entire value range (except 86s and the random pairs). We’re dead to all sets and 85s/65s. The sizing is concerning too as it looks like he wants a call. If he is bluffing, why would he give us such irresistible odds? Nevertheless, I think we have to call and see if we hit.

4) The river 7 is basically a whiff as we have nothing but a bluff catcher and I just can’t put many bluffs in his range. Fold.

[fivebyfive]

So first, I’m a big fan of the power suit theory in big live tourney fields. It helps us make decisions without being too predictable. I mix it in with a “passive suit” that allows me to really have flushes in spots where I often shouldn’t. The better my table is, the more useful I think this is.

To the hand in question. Once we get to the flop, we’re in a good spot. Even though we only have K high, we have more equity that just about any possible V hand. Even in the worst case scenario, where we’re up against the nut diamond draw, we still have good equity. Let’s say villain has Ad10d. We STILL have 34% equity. Against sets and flopped straights (of which there aren’t that many in range for V), we’re still 40%. And against anything else, even two pair combos, we’re favored. So I would consider a 3bet here, and I might have a leak where I push this kind of spot too often. The problem is really, anything that calls our 3bet is mostly in that range we’re behind. Maybe we can get called by QdJd or something like that, but that’s the dream. But this hand is far too strong to fold yet, so I do like your flop call of the x-raise.

I tried ranging our Villain and putting this in Flopzilla. Even against a V x-raise range, we’re still 52%. Until that 5 hits. Every card that doesn’t improve our hand, lowers our equity, but I’d argue that this is the worst card in the deck for us. I plugged in some random turn cards and this 5 gives us the lowest equity of any card. Even an 8 is better for us. We’re at around 30% now and we have to wonder about most of our outs even being clean. I’m almost incapable of doing this in game, but I do wonder if this becomes a fold after that death turn card arrives? I think it might be. We can still exit the hand with a healthy stack and as pretty as that flop was, we’re really only folding K high at this point.

Once we call and reach the river, I have to fold it. The only hands I’m beating are the nut diamond hands, but even for a Euro this would be a really aggro/ambitious bluff spot. You’ve shown tremendous strength by calling the flop x-raise and turn bet. I think this range is heavily weighted toward value when it shoves the river. So I’m folding.

This is a super interesting hand. Curious what others think.

[imalouigi]

Thanks for the feedback gents. I think l @FiveByFive hits the nail on the head. Even though we are getting a ridiculously good price OTT, this turn card is disastrous for us and V’s super small lead is overwhelmingly weighted to nutted value. My takeaway is that we need to find a fold on the turn. Our hand goes from amazing to almost worthless.

I strongly considered 3-betting the flop but ultimately decided against it because our hand is so concealed relative to our perceived range that V should be sticky if we improve (especially hitting the straight) OTT allowing us to get paid off for at least another street.

Hero did fold the river. I just don’t see any bluffs in his line especially with the turn down bet. V did later tell hero he turned the boat but then said he couldn’t remember with which two cards ????‍♂️ so who knows?!