Forum Replies Created
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The river is a 4c. And we face a 168 bet into 365. What is interesting is what this card does to the range. At this point, it is almost even between two-pairs and sets that I beat or straights that I lose to. In the PEAL commentary, I was wondering about the number of Jacks vs. the number of missed flush draws. Given Greg’s sizing here, that is the wrong analysis. A missed flush draw should be using a polarized bet size not a value size and I trust Greg knows this. In Greg’s analysis, he specifically says this is a value bet and I don’t think there are many bluffs in this sizing. So think that is where we get to value that I am beating vs. value that I am losing to. Also, given the sizing and that I am about 50/50 to win the pot. I think it is a clear call as I only need 168/701 ~ 24 % to call. We lose to J10o that flopped the nut straight!
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The Turn is a 10c and Greg checks. This is a bad card for us. 4 liner to the the jack and this brings in some of the straight draws. As you can see the range is getting more polarized to two pair/set which we could get value from or straights which we are behind. If we bet and get raised here we are in a really tough spot, so I elect to check back.
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The flop comes K(!)s,Qc,9s giving us top set on an extremely wet board (90% equity vs. the range above). I go to c-bet 25 into 65, but misclick to 10 instead. I say in the chat that it was meant to be 25 (PEAL is a friendly game) and Greg raises to 50 which is a min raise. So what does the range look like now? Given we are in a deep stacked cash game and we splash around a bit in PEAL, I think this could be done with straights, sets, two pairs and maybe some combo draws. We have 77% equity against a range like this.
Given the amount of cards we don’t like on the turn and river and might have to shut down on and an opportunity to extract value from 2-pairs, worse sets and draws, we go ahead and raise to 150. Greg goes ahead and calls which I think he does with most of this range. We can probably quibble with maybe getting some folds or raise backs here (with made straights for example), but I think as played this makes sense.
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One of the things I have been wondering about is we had top set vs. nut straight on the flop and the pot was only 700? How did we not get all in on the flop here? I think it was interesting how the board texture, the flush draw, etc. dictated both of us playing these extremely strong hands a little cautiously. Both of us had a strong case for trying to get value from worse hands while also being cautious about what was on the board. The fact that KK and J10 were such small pieces of the range made it difficult to bloat this pot up.
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Hi Max, I played in an online league like this during the pandemic and did very well. Here was a couple things I picked up, that I would be curious to hear other’s thoughts on as some of this might apply to small field tournaments. It also might be totally wrong, but worked for me.
– Allow others to make the mistakes. If you find 10-15 or so people are going out on obvious misplays each week, let them. Try to catch some of the punts if you can, but also you don’t really need to be taking a bunch of 50/50 spots to chip up if you can get super far by just folding and letting others screw up. You might only need one or two good hands to be in a good position. The notes on player tendencies will be super helpful for this. If you are a couple away from the money and see some known punters (that certainly won’t understand ICM) at the FT. Let them screw up even if it means passing up some proper GTO jamming spots. You can afford to wait even if you get super short.
– Understand what they don’t understand: Something like position is only valuable if the other player plays their advantage with that position. If people behind you are going to play face up betting if they have something and checking if they don’t it takes away their positional advantage. If you can play the HJ like the button if the people behind you are not going to run a 3 street bluff based on the board texture, it allows you to play more speculative hands from earlier position. You can lose a bunch of small multi-way pots, but you need the discipline to keep the pot small and not get too fancy. This is something I struggle with. Back to my first point, I try to get too fancy and play more hands pre-flop, but then try to get fancy post-flop with calling stations. I could get down to 1/2 stack losing small pots cause I was a much better 20bb player than most of the player pool and could come back from the dead a lot. Like Chris said in a 1000 player tournament this is not a good strategy as you now need to double way more times to be in contention, but in a small field with players you have a clear post-flop edge on? You want to open up with those speculative drawing hands as you may not have many opportunities.
– What works as a 3-bet, what doesn’t: I think the other thing to think about is why 3-bet. My understanding (and this might be wrong), is that 3-bets are good for isolating players so you play against fewer cards and making sure no one behind you can squeeze. I think a good question is, will anyone behind me squeeze with anything other than premiums? If they don’t this allows you to overcall with some speculative hands and see a flop with hands that can make the nuts in a multi-way pot. I often found myself making disciplined folds pre-flop and watching a big pot develop that I would have won because others are calling with a ton of garbage. For example, if you can lose small pots with small pocket pairs but crush it if you hit a set, folding smaller pocket pairs to an UTG raise and a call might be “correct” but if you know you won’t get squeezed from behind and the EP players aren’t clearly telegraphing pairs that dominate you, see what happens. What hands you do want to 3-bet/squeeze are hands that can get dominated by a bunch of callers. If people are overcalling with KQ or AQ or even AK sometimes, then you want to 3-bet your hands (KJ,AJ,A10 etc.) where you are thinking I could get exactly the flop I want here and still lose because someone is passively playing a stronger hand.
-Sizing: The other thing is sizing. Nothing is worse than 3-betting a speculative hand or squeezing with AJs and then 4 players call. You hit your A and lose all your chips to a random two pair (108s) or AQ. I have found I need to go big to get folds from trash. Like when people are saying, “Woah too expensive for my taste”, that is the sweet spot. Then you can be like, “Oh darn no action with KK” while you quietly put Q8s in the muck. The 3-bet huge and small c-bet to see if you get raised if you do get called is pretty effective.
Let me know what you think. I think this can create a lot of bad habits for stronger games, but I found it to be an effective strategy.
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Hey @jim , interesting spot! Before I reveal below. What did you think I had? What were you targeting with the jam or were you just hoping I fold at that point as the pot is at 20bbs? I am very curious about this cause I think playing good flop draws on the turn when you don’t hit is a big weakness in my game. I think you had like 18 outs (K,Q,A,a spade) you would have been pretty happy about. I think you had like 38 bigs left still? I would usually try to get the other player to stick around for the river to get stacks with that many outs if I hit but that could be dumb! Also, if an A,9 or spade is likely good for me, but is awesome for you should you try to get me to the river to basically guarantee your shove gets called? Does a check call of a 60%ish bet (I think implied odds makes this okay?) ever make sense here to identify me as having a strong hand or if I check back, pretty clearly a marginal pair or draw?
At the time, I determined your over half sizing on flop meant you were the one likely to have a pair and make it harder for spade draws to call, not that you also had draws. I felt like the river shove also seemed to indicate that. Like you had a decent jack or over pair you didn’t want me hanging around to keep drawing against.
I had KQo so we shared the OESD, but you had the spades as well. With this specific holding and knowing you might have some Aces that block my outs by that point, I am probably folding to any turn bet there with 6 or fewer outs. I think its tough cause I either have a lot of equity with hero call potential if the river is a blank or a draw that is going to just fold to a more than 50% size.
As or 10s coming out would have made things real interesting 🙂
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Hi everyone, thanks for the thoughts! It sounds like people like the pre-flop raise (maybe as a min-raise) rather than a jam. Also seems like no one minds the fold so I am happy about that. I ran some stuff in Equilab that I thought was interesting.
Given a 15bb utg+1 opening range and a BB calling range that is a bit tighter than the charts suggest. I took out a lot of the low non-connected stuff just because I’m not sure the field is calling that wide at this stage of the tournament. We have a big range advantage on the flop. 63-37.
If we check back and take all but AA and AK out of our range as traps, the 2 on the turn narrows our range advantage, but we are still ahead 52-48 because they are so wide.
However, if we bet small with our entire range and fold out their garbage, the 2 on the turn actually gives them a 57-43 range advantage! This was shocking to me as I perceived it as a total brick that shouldn’t change much. However, it does give them some two pair combos and a bunch of gut shots if they are calling with all the low connected stuff.
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Sorry I won’t be able to make it tomorrow @petvet will be fun to watch the video.
