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  • elvida

    Member
    November 21, 2021 at 11:29 pm in reply to: River Bet With 2nd Pair On Coordinated Board

    I think a big question is whether the LJ is betting for value or as a bluff. He has the Kh, which decreases the number of flushes the SB can have, given that SB 3b (although if he knows that SB is 3b T8s, that opens up a ton of potential combos in that range). If he is value betting what worse hand is he hoping will call? If he/she is bluffing, is this really the size that will do it? And what is he/she targeting? I guess a Q, but again I would think he would want to size up, particularly as I am not sure that will get the job done and I don’t know what he/she does if the SB raises/jams.

    I think that the SB has a tough decision on the River when that 3rd heart comes in when not holding a heart and only third pair. Bluffing away the equity on third pair by barrelling again, when you could easily be blasting into a made flush or a set of Qs or Js, is probably not a profitable move.

    So maybe this all comes down to fate favors the less timid?

    The ranges are pretty wide for both players (bold 3b from the SB with T8s, brave call with KJo). Probably gets them into decisions that are tough and unnecessary. It is my understanding that in these games the producers push them to play splashy and wide to give more hands which probably leads to some weirdness in their play and perhaps a greater propensity for atypical lines.

  • elvida

    Member
    November 19, 2021 at 2:55 pm in reply to: Stone Cold Bubble – in a large field MTT

    My understanding is that it depends on a few variables. 1) The payout structure, the flatter that it is, the more it makes sense to play tighter as there is less incentive to take risks as a medium stack. 2) The range of stacks remaining in the tournament as this will change the value of the chips remaining in your stack and what you are risking by playing risky and 3) Your desire to win the whole thing versus min cashing what you think is a low buy in tournament

    The first two can be calculated, the third is just a personal preference. I think if you decide to play you should just shove and take advantage of the fold equity or be off to the races.

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