Forum Replies Created
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Thank @Jim . I appreciate everybody’s comments. After hearing so many top players and coaches recommend sharing and discussing hands as a great to improve, I’m committed to doing it.
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Results:
*** RIVER *** [8d 4c As Jc] [6c]
Small Blind : Bets 330
UTG+1 [ME] : Call 330
Small Blind : Showdown [As Ah 6h 6c Jc] (Two pair)
UTG+1 [ME] : Showdown [As Ac Jh Jc 8d] (Two pair)
UTG+1 [ME] : Hand Result 1320
I called with my top two pair. Straight seemed unlikely as it was a gutshot draw. Although the backdoor flush came in, I couldn’t see folding.
SB showed Ah 6h for a rivered worse two pair. After the initial relief of not losing to a flush, I realized that a raise would have been called. In the moment, I thought it was a mistake to miss out on value. But after time to think about it, I see that only holding his exact hand do I get called by worse. By betting I would just lose more against the flushes.
Thanks for the comments.
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I think this is a fold or jam spot. TT is just not good enough so I think fold. With JJ it’s a jam.
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Great break-down by ARW. I really like how he recaps the hand.
The problem with a check, bet small, jam strategy is that it allows your opponent to fully realize his equity. Hands that missed the board will not call any river bet.
At the low SPR, it makes more sense to make it a two street game. Bet flop small and jam turn. Weaker hands (overcards and draws) are more likely to call on the turn with another card to come.
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Think about which line maximally exploits your opponent’s tendencies. If opponent calls too much, then increase cbets for value. If he stabs often with air, then check the flop with more of your value hands.
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ARW – another impressive combinatorial breakdown.
Set combos – I think both AA and 66 are unlikely. AA would 3bet and 66 would likely fold facing flop and turn bets. Assume 1 out of 4 AA/66 combo reaches the river.
Total set combos: 8
Flush: I had the Ac. That leaves sb with 35 flush combos
Straight combos: 15
Total combos that beat me: 58
Two pairs: Removing more of sb combos decreases the chances that a call is good.
Remove the most unconnected hands, 84,J6, and J4: 49 two pair combos
But as played, assume that A8 and A4 would raise either on the flop or turn.
Now we are down to 37 combos I beat.
So 37 / (37+58) = 39%
Equity needed to make the call break even is 330/(330+660) = 33%
Would this player bet with a worse 2 pair or only a flush or straight?
I really didn’t know in the moment….
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To clarify, hand started with 9 players. It went heads-up to the flop. Thanks for the response. Agree that even with loose players, the preflop calling range fro sb should be than a BB caller. So 84/J6/J4 combos are less likley.