[jim]

love your hidden results feature here @Binkley I’ll see if we can add a cloaking layer to this forum in the future. It’s great seeing your thoughts on these hands, I’m really enjoying your posts.

[jim]

There’s some great technical application here folks, come and take a gander! @ARW when you are playing in real time, what portion of this process do you have internalized, what portion do you use aids to recall in real time, and what portion do you typically abandon for real-time play and instead apply during pre- or post- play study or review sessions?

[jim]

I agree completely that with that board and action with bottom set you are probably not getting called by worse OFTEN ENOUGH to make it worth the 3bet shove on the turn. Ditto for when to call/fold – He could make that flop bet and turn raise with A8h for instance or a few other combos of pair+draw if we really wanted to try to build out his range with some other hands you’re ahead of, but even then the real question is – in the long run, is he doing it with ENOUGH of his range to make it a profitable continuing spot? I don’t mind folding to some bluffs in a betting or raising range that is mostly value hands if I know he’s not bluffing there enough in the long run, or with enough combos to make my call profitable,

[jim]

I wonder if he is often just completing in the SB pre facing a button limp with TT or JJ – you know the player best, but that seems very passive for a four-handed game. That makes me inclined to agree with you about the FD or maybe even some of the less-blocked 2pr holdings that he might also bet pot on those streets given the runout. They are less common but I think they would be part of some players ranges in that spot. Interesting hand! I love spots like this – what would YOUR range be in this spot as the small blind?

[jim]

I love this take @ARW – my concern was that because it’s SUCH a good hand for bluff-shoving, that my opponent would always fold when I shoved the flop with hands that I might get chips from on later streets. I completely agree that the balanced approach is to include this hand in a linear value shoving range on the flop – especially at this SPR – but I might prefer to do it on a similar flop when I did NOT have such a strong hand, like Q62r or something similar, because it will elicit the same folds with that bluff that I am afraid of eliciting now with my value shove. I love the way you are applying the theory and mathematics of bet sizing and equity to these hands, these are extremely rich responses.

[jim]

Good Gravy Above what the heck did I miss last night? Sounds like a craaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaazy game!

[jim]

I love that we are looking at the science of combinatorics here – it looks really complicated but honestly folks if you spend a little time practicing your ranges and internalizing the ways suited, unsuited, and paired hands present as portions of those ranges, the actual combo counting will get much much easier in real time. Like anything worth having, it WILL take some hard work and practice off the felt and in the lab. But it REALLY pays of at the table when you don’t have to start from scratch on every street.This is great stuff @ARW please keep them coming!

[jim]

@JonLutsey It was so weird playing in this hand with you when we had just finished talking in the OPaH about how I shouldn’t shove flops like that when I have top pair – because it’s so good to bluff! What do you think as the other player in the hand, do you fold or call if I shove the flop? That seems like the real question – @schneidz33 and I audibly groaned when the Ace came on the river hahaha

[jim]

This is great stuff guys, and obviously McVean agrees! I’m going to take this back into the lab and keep tinkering with my spots. I also made a bad check/raise bluff in the home game last night because I was having too much fun chatting in the OPaH that I didn’t realize the river paired the board twice – the raise made no sense in that context. I have to pick the spots for these polarized plays better. Really good feedback!

[jim]

Ugh I hate these spots. With such a dry flop texture it’s a bad board for his 3-betting range when compared to your actual holdings here, so you are ahead of almost all of his C-betting range. Personally I prefer the call here because his range is drawing so poorly to catch up with you when he’s behind.

Is there merit to 4-betting here preflop? I know AK is kind of a blocker-bluff as a 4bet with these stacks vs the SB range but frankly so is raising the flop, and by then they’ve realized their flop equity and can release the hands that didn’t catch up. Very curious to see what other people think about this.

[jim]

I doubt I can find a fold preflop, although not closing the action is a strong reason not to get involved in a multiway pot from out of position. As much as I normally love check/shoving the FLOP in some heads-up spots, you are definitely getting the right odds to just call and draw to your flush multiway here. The turn I’m less sure about, if your flush is always good and your 8 is sometimes good then you could find a call according to pot odds/equity but I’m not fist-pumping to get my chips in there as a call with one street to go. But I’m allergic to folding so maybe I also check/shove turn but it’s a tricky spot.

[jim]

so far my favourite comment @Binkley you are absolutely correct that your line of flop/turn will get more hands to come along on the turn than my turn/river line will on the river, that’s an excellent point. Can we do that with a balanced range while also having a balanced shoving range on the flop at this stack size? I guess it doesn’t matter because this line is meant to be exploitive-only anyway. Hey @JonLutsey what do you think, would you have called a tiny bet on the flop in that spot? He did call a 3bet preflop so there’s a better chance than usual that he has a not-terrible holding that can stand up to a few different flop textures. Maybe that was a better line! I think because we had just been discussing this exact spot 5 minutes earlier he still would have raised some red flags, even with a small cbet. If stacks were deeper, then a smaller cbet seems like clearly the better option, even on such a perfectly dry board.

[jim]

I am loving all these replies! @Binkley I agree hands that miss the board will not call any river bet, so they are folds anyway – nothing we can do about that. But we are playing with someone we just had a conversation with about this exact spot, so we are 100% in exploit mode here and value betting, not bluffing – we want to get CALLS in this spot by worse hands, not force them to fold (in my opinion). I am basically treating the money in the pot as mine already with top pair on this runout. And the times that the river makes me a loser will be outweighed by the times I make a little more in the pot because he makes a worse pair or decides to bluff – even if that doesn’t happen very often. Keep replying folks, I love thinking about this stuff and I know I’m wrong as often as I’m right! What am I missing?

[jim]

Keep it up @ARW ! I love your style of analysis. On this flop with this holding, is your flop shove a value bet or a bluff?

[jim]

Hee hee Rob all good points: I was value-targeting any hand that would have made one pair by the river. Since my pair was the king, any card other than the ace would make a call slightly more likely on the river than on the turn, imo. And I have FPS tattooed on my forearm! (not really, but let’s just say I am VERY familiar with it lol)

[jim]

That’s amazing, I think we both played the hand in a pretty savvy fashion given the dynamics of the earlier conversation. Poker is such a fun game! Probably plays out differently if we hadn’t just been talking about that kind of spot. Good read yourself! Almost got me! *cheers (with a Grolsch)*

[jim]

We were talking about this in the OPaH last night – feeling like you “should” make a play to be “unexploitable” because of a textbook strategy, even though it feels like sometimes you’re counter-exploiting an opponent’s strategy that doesn’t even exist. I’m struggling with how to weigh balanced and exploitative plays in my overall game now, it’s an interesting tension to explore.