steve-fredlund
Forum Replies Created
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Adam, I am way behind on the forums but this is very interesting. Is there a formula to determine bet sizing needed for each street to get it in by the river based on number of blinds in the pot and the effective size remaining. That would be an interesting tidbit… and if the sizing is too small, then calculate the sizing needed to get it in on two streets (any 2 will do to keep opponent on the hook). Or even choosing between the two… if you think the opponent will jump at weakness but fold if 3 streets of aggression, what is the pattern needed for 3 or 2 streets??
For example, what if there are 6 bb in the middle and effective stack is 20 bb or 30 or 40 or 50. How do we get it in on 2 or 3 streets? Seems like we should be able to do something with the P1 (pot after pre-flop action), E1 (effective stack remaining after preflop action) and S (number of streets) to calculate the consistent %P needed so that E3 (effective stack after the turn action) = P3 (Pot after the turn action)
I will let the geniuses generalize, but for example:
P1=6 E1=40 and S=3
if %P = 50%, then P3 = 6+6+12 = 24 and E3=40-3-6=31
We want E3=%p*P3 right?
E3 = E1 – (%P x P1) – (%P x (P1 + (2 x %P x P1)
P3 = P1 + (2 x %P x P1) + (2 x %P x (P1 + (2 x %P x P1)))
Therefore, since we want E3 = P3,
E1 – (%P x P1) – (%P x (P1 + (2 x %P x P1) = P1 + (2 x %P x P1) + (2 x %P x (P1 + (2 x %P x P1)))
E1 – (%PxP1) – (%PxP1) + (2x%P) + (%P^2) + (%PxP1) = P1 + (2x%PxP1) + (2x%PxP1) + (2x%Px2%PxP1)
E1 – %PxP1 + 2x%P + %P^2 = P1 + 4x%Px%P1 + 4x%PxP1
I think my algebra is messing up but you get my point; can we solve for %P given these assumptions..?
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Wow; this one got big quick after starting the hand with 300 big blinds, it’s hard to imagine getting it in there with ultimately just a 7.
As you mentioned, I think the flop is the most interesting street; I can see a check back as a way of under-repping your hand and taking the free card, while also avoiding a check raise which could be pretty common given that board which is generally better for their range (I think — enter wizards). I think the flop call is fine but also a re-raise is fine if willing to get it in there (not that you would shove, but if you re-raise you are pretty committed with all the equity you likely have. For these reasons I like the check back early in the tourney (but I’m pretty nitty early in tourneys).
As played, I do think you need to call turn since you only need about 20% equity which you very likely have (wizards can do the math).
The river sort of sucks; do you think a 7 is every good here against an opponent’s range who would be limping behind and then calling a raise preflop? Could be a bunch of 44,55,66,77,88,99 or suited T9,98,87,76,65,54, all of which beat you and may have taken this line. I guess you are ahead of some Ax suited hands if you think they would have limped them pre.
I didn’t add any value here but I do like processing it; excited for the wizards responses. Thx for posting Louie.
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Ace magnets! I like the non-shove open here also and we are hoping we get the old 3-bet shove against us. Contrary to the wizards, I am likely continuation betting this flop really small (1/4 pot) as this will help us immediately range our opponent as I can fold to a check-raise and if they call, I will most likely have the option of checking back the turn. Further, that small c-bet gets us a few calls from worse hands like 98 suited, QQ, JJ, TT, 99. So we have been able to get to the river quite cheaply and can assess their action on the river. I might even consider another small turn bet if they called my flop bet so I can then check back the river; this allows me to control the size of the pot, while retaining a little fold equity, and getting a few calls from worse hands. If my opponent shows aggression in the wake of my continued aggression, I can easily fold. Once we check and hand them the hammer, we have to decide if they are capable of bluffing or not… we end up being the one in the vice.
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I won’t be able to be out there that early, and if you are in the field, we are all playing for 2nd anyway! GL Chad
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I will be at the RecPoker house on those dates but not eligible for the Super Seniors… but I will be on your rail when you FT.
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Love this post as it’s such a common spot. I like a shove or fold against a good solid opponent who will likely continue to apply pressure post flop. I am curious what happened the other times they opened SB vs BB; did you tend to call/fold/raise against them. If you always folded, that widens their range here a bit. In general I love a shove here with like A9+ as you have a better chance of having overs against their small pairs; I don’t love the A2 spot here. If you were closer to the money it’s an easy fold. If I’m completely honest, I think it’s a fold for me here and look for a better spot, even though the wizards will tell you it’s a shove 🙂
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Hey @petvet hadn’t see this. Looking at doing the RunGood in Florida August 22-27; doing an interest check to see if we will get a house. We have a nice blossoming relationship with RunGood so want to keep that going. Also, lmk if you/EBM/JJ and/or crew want to lock in any dates for the RecPoker house or just connect at some point when we are over there.
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Great stuff; excited to hear all the feedback. Frankly I believe his BB defend range is super wide. He was using his stack to enter a ton of pots and the apply post-flop pressure; he was doing a lot of BB defending and a lot of preflop floating, then with any sign of weakness would apply some pressure. My thinking is that my check on the flop would result in him betting nearly/all his entire range and that my shove would look super strong; like JJ/QQ/KK/AA. I felt I would get all of his unpaired hands to fold and if he had a made hand, I would usually have 6 outs (not great) to hit on the river. From an ICM perspective we were well into the money but a long way from reasonable pay jumps; I really was looking to build a stack and then felt like a great spot to induce the bet and then get him to fold a lot of his range. He didn’t even snap call; he went in the tank and sort of shrug called.
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Hey Rob, I’m no wizard but I definitely like the KQ suited 3-bet from the big-blind versus a button open. Against and early/mid raise, I would be much more prone to just call.
As for the check-raise, I can argue a call or check-raise, but that’s not the point. The question is bet size. You are over 100 big blinds deep here, so I don’t think you need to strategize about how to get it all-in. Because they only bet 1/3 pot, its worth considering what we think they are doing here. The only draw on the board is T9.
I think a 3x re-raise is fine here; if you get called you are ultimately putting in 3,123 to win 9,200 with our bet; so definitely giving yourself the right odds assuming you have 15 outs (but don’t even need that many).
The only consideration I would have is what is your plan with your check-raise if they decide to re-raise again? I’m still pretty comfy but would like to control pot size a bit. so I might dip it to about 2.5x.
Either way with this board they are likely polarized so it’s an easy fold or and easy call/raise for them with their holding.
Rambling; curious about the wizards.
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This is so awesome; if you missed our conversation during the release with Kevin Mathers, check it out here – https://rec.poker/content/podcast/wsop2021/
I can’t wait to review it in more detail and start circling! We will have the RecPoker house rented for the entire series and hoping I can be there for most of it!
Special Episode – Kevin Mathers and the Release of the 2021 WSOP Schedule
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definitely some interesting play, which if we played more of the DPT I think we could all figure out ways to exploit. Thanks for coming up; really was looking for a deep run from you bud. Next time..
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good point. I guess my thinking is that there is 9.5 in the middle and I have 14 behind. I’m OK denying any equity he might have with something like a pocket pair or a T. Great point, should likely be looking for a full double, but moving from 16 to 23.5 bigs at that stage would be big. I also like setting a table image late in tournaments that I can be a bit tricky as I do believe that gives me more tools as we get really deep. Appreciate the insights.
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Good questions and I’m not pretending to be right; but I will give my thinking and definitely open to being corrected.
1) I decided on 2.5 because the small blind was defending small raises quite wide and I really wanted to isolate the big blind here, or at least be able to identify ranges a bit better if the SB defended.
2) I would play a lot of my value hands the same way here. AA, KK, TT and 66 for sure I would check back flop looking to induce turn action. QQ, JJ I would likely continue because of the number of bad turn cards that could ensue. But to your point, I likely wouldn’t shove the the TT/66 on the turn but I would the AA/KK
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awesome, yes you have to check it out… it”s an amazing experience.
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Dude, that’s awesome. You will have to stop by the RecPoker House at some point… or at least we can meet up at the Rio for a breakfast. Have you been there before?
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I am a huge proponent of satellites for value (not just to take a shot). Many Rec players can pretty consistently get into the top 110-20% but struggle running super deep where the real money is, so in standard tourneys they get a lot of min cashes. Satellites often return 4-8 times the buy in, which is great for a “min cash”. And usually, just because you win a satellite does NOT mean you have to play the big one. That’s why I say playing satellites for value is a great approach for many of us.
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Generally, I think figure out your budget for the series and then we can have a conversation to brainstorm how to maximize the dollars. This could be a really fun discussion; not sure if this is something @petvet and her travel team could help with but would be a fun process. I am planning on having monthly zoom calls with those staying in the RecPoker hosue so we can get to know each other as we get closer.
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Jim, not sure if you are interested, but we are going to create a staking approach for RecPoker Road Trippers; that might be a way you can play in those events and a way for those not going to engage with the WSOP.