eanderson85
Forum Replies Created
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This is for 40BB, but 60 I think is similar. What does the aggregate report on GTO Wizard say? I would love to see it. Sometimes getting some money is better than getting none. The goal of the game is to get all-in with the nuts, but this one is kinda difficult.
This flop is great for the preflop aggressor, as most Small Blinds 3bet with Aces, Kings, Ace King, and King Queen (at least suited.) No reason for the caller to call a big flop bet here. Any bet if you think about it. They don’t have any draws except back doors, and we heavily block the nuts. The case king, under pairs, a couple sixes, and double back doors?
The smoothest way to get it in is with a geometric sizing. With and SPR of 9, You would have to bet over 3/4 pot every street. I don’t think that’s going to work on this board.
Unless you have them tagged as a stabber this really isn’t a great board for a check/raise to lower the SPR, either.
But hey, you can’t win if you don’t enter. They will never call your big bets if you never bet big, and you will never get the highly coveted triple check-raise unless you try (MUCH more impressive than a Royal Flush!) It’s a tournament, you might play 50 hands with them. By the time they figure out that you are betting bigger with the nuts there will be a table change. Especially if they see you are capable of bluffing.
When’s the last time you bet big and showed a bluff? If they have you tagged as “Old Man Coffee”, and you are afraid they are too nitty against you and won’t call a big bet, why aren’t you betting big with your bluffs?
If they have you tagged as an “aggro hoodie” and never fold to your bets, why aren’t you betting bigger with your value?
What are your value targets? How many sixes does SB call with? A6s, 76s, and 66? And diamonds.
I guess we try and guess how much their flush draw will pay to reach the river. With this exact hand we want them to get there (and thankfully we don’t have one in our hand), but most of the time we will be “charging the draws” and trying to get them to fold. How much do you bet then?
What bluffs do you have that follow this line? How would things change with bluffs like AdJd? or pocket jacks?
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I don’t think Button’s VPIP/PFR is too out of line for 6-max, but on the high side. Their 15% 3bet is definitely on the aggressive side. It depends on how many hands you have on them and how passive the rest of table is. If you keep getting folds when you 3 bet, why stop 3-betting?
How aggressive are YOU playing? Are you playing aggressive enough for Small Blind to slowplay against you? I would still cap their range and eliminate QQ+ and AK.
The Pot is 15.4BB and you need to call 2.4 to continue, giving you 13% pot odds. It’s very likely that any pair you hit will be dominated, therefore we are flush mining with fold equity.
The odds of you hitting your flush are 6.4%, so you can’t call. <b style=”background-color: var(–bb-content-background-color); font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; color: var(–bb-body-text-color);”>MATH: =((COMBIN(11,3)*COMBIN(39,2)) + (COMBIN(11,4)*COMBIN(39,1)) + (COMBIN(11,5)))/((50*49*48*47*46)/(5*4*3*2*1))Raising and folding are our only options. Raising against a 15% 3-better is a good play, but having someone willing to flat a 3bet from the Small Blind makes me wonder if it will be just as easy for them to flat a 4bet OOP. I’m with Keith on this one and think if we want to raise, it should be at least a pot-sized bet to threaten stacks on the flop.
Without further reads, I would fold and hope opponents go to showdown so I can take notes, but for some reason if I think I can get them both to fold I would bet 25 to 30BB and reach for my wallet.
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Any chance you can ladder up without risk you should probably take it. Flipping isn’t close to good enough to call. Even Aces lose 19% of the time against Kings. You need to weigh how much you want to win vs how much you want the money. I think anytime there are two all-ins and you are covered at the final table, you either have to have and M less than 2, or have a reason other than math to call.
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My thought in game was “how to I get the SPR down low enough to shove the river?” Our whole strategy should be built around getting it in with the nuts. Here we have the effective nuts with some bad river cards possible.
With a turn SPR of 8.28 I could have potted and prayed they had not only an Ace, but an Ace or two-pair that they would call a river 2X shove with.
Should they call a pot sized (or higher) turn bet with 19.57% flush draw equity? Will they call a 2X river shove with A4, A6, or ANY ace they didn’t 3-bet pre??
If they call a 3/4 pot bet, are they calling a 3X pot river shove with anything we beat? What are our bluffs when we make this huge overbet?
By checking I induce bluffs, getting value out of hands that would fold to even a small bet on the Ace scare card, and by check-raising I can get the SPR down to where the non-3bet aces have a more callable shove when the Ace or 7 of clubs comes on the river. 🙏
Sure, they can check behind, but those aren’t the hands we should be targeting. They aren’t calling 3 streets. Especially overbets.
If I didn’t have a hand, I would have definitely bluffed the Ace small with my 2s, 4s, 6s, and flush draws to get rid of their air on the turn and then not put another chip in the pot.
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How did you end up in Denver? And how soft is Central City/Blackhawk?
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Not enough edits for someone with as poor grammar as me. The flipside of the blocker coin is a thing called bunching. At a 10 max table that folds to the button you can eliminate all the cards the previous players folded (hands not good enough to play). This makes the chances that the button has a hand that they can open slightly better than at a six handed table, they are opening a 40BB button range either way (1326 possible hands minus 7 folds 10 handed, vs 1326 possible starting hands with 3 folds at 6-max.) The odds of you calling (the same range) are slightly higher when more cards have been folded beforehand, also. After that, it all plays the same.
With a 1BB ante, your pot odds are actually better at a short table, so you can defend more than the charts below, which are both calculated 9-handed without an ante in the pot.
No need to bet larger on the Turn. Your bet sizes are determined by your nut hands in the range compared to your bluffs. You (optimally) offer your opponent pot odds at a ratio of value:bluffs. If you bet half pot, you are offering 3:1 odds, you should have one bluff for every 3 value hands against a good opponent. Of course, no one plays optimally, so you need to adjust from this baseline. If your opponent is a calling station, I would use a 2e bet, this is the smoothest way to get it all in. If they like to attack weakness, check-raise. If they are a nit and see monsters under every bed, bet a smaller size that you think they will call. 10% is better value than checking.
The question I have for you- what are your bluffs when you over bet the river, or are you one of those guys that “always has it on the river?” You mentioned polarizing, but you didn’t mention with what. If you have no bluffs here, then you are way over valuing the skill of your opponent who called you. -
The flipside of the blocker coin is a thing called bunching. At a 10 max table that folds to the button you can eliminate all the cards the previous players folded (hands not good enough to play). This makes the chances that the button has a hand that they can open slightly better at a six handed table, they are opening a 40BB button range either way. The odds of you calling (the same range) are slightly higher when more cards have been folded beforehand, also. After that, it all plays the same. With a 1BB ante, your pot odds are actually better, so you can defend more than the charts below, which are both calculated without an ante in the pot.
No need to bet larger on the Turn. Your bet sizes are determined by your nut hands in the range compared to your bluffs. You (optimally) offer your opponent pot odds at a ratio of value:bluffs. If you bet half pot, you are offering 3:1 odds, you should have one bluff for every 3 value hands against a good opponent. Of course, no one plays optimally, so you need to adjust from this baseline. If your opponent is a calling station, I would use a 2e bet, this is the smoothest way to get it all in. If they like to attack weakness, check-raise. If they are a nit and see monsters under every bed, bet a smaller size that you think they will call. 10% is better value than checking.
The question I have for you- what are your bluffs when you over bet the river, or are you one of those guys that “always has it on the river?” You mentioned polarizing, but you didn’t mention with what. If you have no bluffs here, then you are way over valuing the skill of your opponent who called you.
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blog.gtowizard.com
Overchoice: Making Sense of Multiple Sizings
There are two articles on the GTO Wizard blog that make good prerequisites to this piece: Principles of Turn Strategy and How to Analyze Turn Textures in Poker.
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Nice Job. This kind of post takes a lot of work. I usually run out of edits before I find all of my mistakes. And if I have to do it somewhere else first, then somewhere else is where it stays. I appreciate your🍻 sharing. You are doing the work others are too lazy to do. 🏆
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Sometimes I donk on 6 high and 5 high boards for thin value and protection when I hit a pair, but I prefer a check raise. It gives you more information and slows down the aggros who just bet when checked to. It’s vogue now to donk with the nuts, but seldom is it bluffed at the right frequency. On the turn you have 4 twos, 4 fives, and 8 clubs for a total of 16 cards out of the 47 remaining to continue bluffing with. And barring the board pairing, they are all draws to the nuts.
I would do a 3e check-raise on the flop, 2e turn bet when I gain equity, and shove the river with the nuts.
If I hit my bottom pair, I’m not putting any more money in the pot. If I hit my top pair, I would have to resort to player reads, but I would probably just try to get to showdown as cheap as possible, letting my opponent hang himself with all of his jacks. -
I think the 3bet is small. A pot sized bet gives your opponent 33% odds to call (which preflop hands have more than 33% equity?), and more clearly defines their 4bet (plus it’s faster and easier to smash the “pot” button.) It is much easier to base your bet size on a fraction of the pot than some preset number of chips, as you will face wide variety of situations. Plus, players unwilling to learn the science of poker will try to get reads out of your bet sizes that aren’t there, and are easier to exploit.
In this situation, you would have probably still gotten 4bet. Given population tendencies, this is a fold. Given villain tendencies and the assumption he is playing looser (aka adding your bounty in chips to the pot odds) to isolate your bounty, I can see a call.
See the free poker math course by splitsuit (dot) com (slash) lesson.
Postflop, I love the implied odds of a royal draw. You either hit the stone-cold nuts, the nut flush, or the nut straight, and most players’ have difficulty folding the second nuts. Did I mention blockers?
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I asked Bard…
“<b _ngcontent-ng-c3126146755=”” style=”font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; color: var(–bb-body-text-color);”>In no limit holdem, what is a good check-raise flop, check-raise turn, check-raise river statistic?”In no-limit hold’em, check-raising is a powerful move that can be used to represent strength, take the initiative away from your opponent, and generate fold equity. However, it’s important to use this move judiciously, as check-raising with weak hands can be costly.
Here are some general guidelines for check-raising frequencies in no-limit hold’em:
Check-raise flop: 5-15%
Check-raising on the flop is a more aggressive play than c-betting, so you should be more selective with your hand choices. Typically, you want to check-raise with strong hands that you think have good value and good fold equity. This includes hands like top pair, two pair, and sets.
Check-raise turn: 4-12%
The turn is a more information-rich street than the flop, so you should be even more selective with your check-raise hand choices. You typically want to check-raise with hands that have improved significantly on the turn, such as sets that have turned into trips or pairs that have turned into two pair.
Check-raise river: 2-8%
The river is the last street of betting, so you should be very selective with your check-raise hand choices. You typically only want to check-raise with the very best hands, such as nuts or near-nuts.
Of course, these are just general guidelines, and your actual check-raising frequencies will vary depending on a number of factors, such as the stakes you’re playing, the type of game you’re playing, your opponent’s tendencies, and your own personal style. However, starting with these statistics is a good place to start.
<b _ngcontent-ng-c3126146755=”” style=”font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; color: var(–bb-body-text-color);”>
As you become more experienced, you can adjust your check-raising frequencies based on your own observations and analysis.