[arw]

Flop – 1/2 pot bet

Turn – 1/2 pot bet

River – full pot bet

[arw]

Hands that beat me:

sets or boats — 99, AA, 77, 33, A9

trips — K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98 — assume he folds (97, 96, 95, 94, 93, 92)

pair of aces — AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2

* Some of these AX hands are questionable on whether they call a flop bet.

Combos

99 – 1 combo

AA, 77, 33 – 3 combos each

9X – 8 combos each (6 off-suit, 2 suited)

AX – 12 combos each (8 off-suit, 4 suited)

_____

= (1 x 1) + (3 x 3) + (8 x 5) + (12 x 11) = quads + sets + trips + ace

= 1 + 9 + 40 + 132

= 182 combos that beat me

_____

If only suited aces call

= (1 x 1) + (3 x 3) + (8 x 5) + (4 x 11) = quads + sets + trips + ace

= 1 + 9 + 40 + 44

= 94 combos if only suited aces included

[arw]

How often your opponent folds?

Red = 5%, Green = 10%, Blue = 15%, Yellow = 20%

Left Graph

– When you bet B, each curve represents the minimum % win needed to reach 0 EV.

When the pot is 6.5 bb, you are looking to steal on specific flops by betting (say 3 bb). Now, the red line on the left graph shows that you need to win just over 20% of the time to have +EV when they fold 5%.

— If you bet smaller than 3 bb, you need to win less often.

— If your opponent folds a 3 bb bet more than 5%, you need to win less often.

Right Graph

– When your hand wins W when called, each curve represents the minimum bet size needed to reach 0 EV.

When the pot is 6.5 bb, you should be stealing when you have enough hand equity to still win when called. If you have 0 chance to win, the risk is large because you have no call EV, only fold EV. If you win only 20% of the time, then betting 2 bb should be +EV against an opponent who calls only 5% of the time.

— If the opponent folds more often, you can bet smaller.

— If your hand is stronger than usual, you should bet larger.

(hands with 2 outs should bet smaller, hands with 10 outs should bet larger)

[arw]

[arw]

#2 – Answer

If we assume they will only go All-In with top 5% of hands, I get ~14% chance using this equation with 3 players to act:

= 1 – (1 – range)^players = 1 – (1 – 0.05)^3

[arw]

LOVE IT…excellent insight

[arw]

You have more K combos total and those K’s are more likely stronger than the opponents.

[arw]

PF — MP opens 2 bb, BTN calls 2 bb, you raise from SB to 9 bb, both call.

F — you c-bet 20 bb, MP folds TT (wow), BTN calls 5 bb

T — you bet 32 bb, BTN calls

R — you check, BTN bets 42 bb all in.

With AA on a (5d 2h 7s 8d 9c) board,

— the flop is a rainbow and the only flush draw is diamonds. I think these hands (Ad6d, Ad7d, 7d6d, JdTd, 9d7d) could possibly be in your opponents PF calling range.

— assuming our opponent didn’t call pre-flop with a hand (2), these are two-pair combos (75, 87, 97, 98) that make more sense for a pre-flop calling range.

— hand combos containing a (6) include hands like (A6, 65, 76) assuming that these are more likely to be suited if our opponent plays the hand.

— set combos include (55, 22, 77, 88, 99). I think 22-99 are all possible in the buttons PF calling range. Even though 99 rivered a set, it still was an over-pair to the board with a possible gut-shot.

It looks like A LOT of hands can beat one pair of AA on this board. The BTN can have a wider range. They are more likely to call with speculative hands while in position. Thus, a range that likely includes some hands like 22 – 99, some no-gappers like 43s, 54s, 65s, 76s, 87s, 98s, T9s, JTs, and some 1-gappers like J9s, T8s, 97s, 86s, 75s, 64s.

Checking the river was wise. With all those speculative combos, I think river cards like any 9, 6, 4, or 3 were all dangerous.

[arw]

400/800 + 80 ante

EP opens 2.3 bb and you flat the button with KhJs, the bb also calls.

Flop – Kc Ts 9s — (8.2 bb)

bb checks, EP cbets 4.1 bb (half pot), you call with top pair and gut shot, bb folds

Turn – Kc Ts 9s Ks — (16.4 bb)

EP continues for 9.2 bb (56% of pot), you call

River – Kc Ts 9s Ks Qh — (34.8 bb)

EP overbets for 46.8 bb, you fold

Possible hands that beat your KJ:

KQ, KT, K9, TT, 99, QQ, AJ

Only the Kd is left, this means there are 3 combos each of (KQ, KT, K9).

With the J blocker, there are 12 combos of (AJ)

The sets (TT, 99, QQ) have 3 combos each.

Total combos = 9 + 12 + 9 = 30 combos

Some hands may have pushed you off a chop,

(KdJd, KdJh, KdJc, 9 combos each of (JT, J9, J8))

Total combos = 3 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 30 combos

Hands that you can beat:

AA, AK, AQ, T9, QT, Q9

There are 6 combos of AA.

With the K blockers, there are 4 combos of (AK)

There are 12 combos of AQ however I think this hand is very unlikely.

There are two pair (T9, QT, Q9) combos however the K on the turn killed that action. That being said, these 9 combos each of (T9, QT, Q9).

Arguably, lets say

— 30 combos beat you

— 30 combos chop

— 10 combos lose to you

According to the numbers, this looks like a pretty clear fold.

— 12% of the time you are ahead (none of this range would play this way)

— 42% of the time you chop (some of this range would continue betting)

— 42% of the time you lose (all of this range would continue betting)

Good fold!!!

[arw]

Hands that beat you:

– straight (98) — (16 combos)

– sets (66, 77, TT) — (3 + 3 + 1 combos)

– two pair (T7, T6, 76) — (6 + 6 + 9 combos)

– overpair (AA, KK, QQ, JJ) — (3 + 6 + 6 + 6 combos)

Total = 16 + 7 + 21 + 21 = 65 combos

Feel free to omit (T7 and T6) if you think the opponents won’t defend with those.

Hands that you beat:

– worse kicker (KT, QT, JT, T9, T8) — 12 combos of each

– worse pair (A7, A6, K7, K6) — 12 combos of each

– pair + draw (97, 96, 87, 86) — 12 combos of each

– draw (J9, J8, 85) — 16 combos of each

[arw]

Years ago, I had a similar spot where I flopped bottom set…the board was connected like this, a tight player raised me, and I quickly folded – correctly 🙂

1/2 NL, live cash, 8-handed

UTG – pro

UTG+1 – very aggressive, not crazy

CO – our Hero (biggest stack = $240)

BB – new to the table, “young guy”

Pre-flop

UTG opens to $7, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets to $25, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop — Tc 9h 8c

BB donks $25, UTG shoves for $65, UTG+1 shoves for $180, you tank.

You have top set (TdTs).

To answer your question, I’m definitely not folding TT here. Not many times in poker do you flop top set with a bunch of all-ins ahead of you. Yes, the board is connected and Yes, they could have flopped a straight (QJ, 76, J7). If they do, you can catch any T, 9, or 8 to improve which is ~7 outs.

To me, it’s very likely that they are drawing. You’re blocking value hands like (AT, KT, QT, and JT) that have top pair and good kicker or with a straight draw. Hands like (AJ, J9) have more combos than hands containing a Ten like (AT, JT). A hand like AJ has ~8 outs to hit the straight however they might also believe that hitting an ace is good (which it isn’t against top set).

Let’s say that any Q, J, 7, or 6 are bad cards to see on the turn or river. This is 16 cards of the remaining (52 – 2 – 3) = 47 cards. This means that 16 / 47 cards or 34% of cards can beat top set on the turn. Reminder, you have 7 good outs (T, 9, 8) that can improve your hand. This means that 7 / 47 or ~15% of the time, you will hit a full-house. This leaves 51% of the deck that shouldn’t help nor hurt you.

Looking at pot odds,

With an investment of $180, I’m taking this chance to win ($101 + 25 + 65 + 180) = $370. You would be essentially doubling up.

Call EV = (%call)[(%win)(reward) – (%lose)(risk)]

Assume that we always call, you risk $180, your reward is $370.

-> (%call = 100%)

-> (reward = $370)

-> (risk = $180)

How often do you need to win to break-even with calling?

Call EV = C[(W * Reward) – (L * Risk)]

0 = C[370W – 180L]

0 = 370W – 180(1 – W)

0 = 370W – 180 + 180W

0 = 560W – 180

W = 180 / 560 = 0.32 or 32% win needed

[arw]

@jacob-kieke

I like how you described the hand and your thought process.

I like to always look at the numbers.

Board — Ac 7d 3c 4s 8d

PF – utg opens 2bb, you 3bet to 6bb, heads-up (6 + 6 + 1 + 2 = 15 bb)

F – utg donks 7bb, you call, (15 + 7 +7 = 29 bb)

T – utg bets 29bb, you call, (29 + 29 + 29 = 87bb)

R – utg all in for 59bb, you call, (87 + 59 + 59 = 205 bb)

Combinations

– sets (AA, 77, 33) — 3 combos each — 9 total

– two pairs (A7, A3, 73) — 9 combos each — 27 total however I would ignore (73)

– bigger pairs (KK, QQ, JJ) — 6 combos each — 18 total

– flush draws (KQcc, KJcc, KTcc, QJcc) — 1 combo each

Ranges

– With it being so early in the tournament, I assume that you aren’t 3-betting light in this spot so maybe your range is something like 77+, AK, AQ, AJs, and KQs. I don’t see you 3-betting wider on the 6th hand of the tournament against an utg opener. With this range, 77 – KK and KQ are afraid of the ace on the flop. This means that 42 combos of pocket pair and 16 combos of KQ will likely pump the brakes. The other part of your range (AK, AQ, AJs) likes the ace on the flop. Their are 12 combos of AK and AQ. With the Ac on the flop, the only suited AJ combos are AJhh, AJss, AJdd for 3 total combos. This means that 27 combos / (27 + 58) = 27 / 85 = 32% of your range likes the ace. This means that 68% of your range doesn’t like the ace on the flop. YES, I totally agree that you have the “better aces” in your range. I would argue that the villain has more combos of Ax than you do though. At the early stages of the tournament with 130 bb, a lot of players will stick with these hands pre-flop…especially when getting heads-up.

What does the donk-bet on the flop mean?

– Let’s assume that either donk-bets for value or is semibluffing.

– The value hands are (33, 77, AA, A7, A3, KK, QQ, JJ,) where there are 45 value hand combos (3 + 3 + 3 + 9 + 9 + 6 + 6 + 6).

– The most likely semi-bluffing hands are (KQcc, KJcc, QJcc) which is a total of 3 combos. These hands have 15 outs and can hit any club or any over card on the turn or river to suck-out.

Overall,

– With a hand like TT, you have very little hope to improve on the Turn or River.

– If the villain is semi-bluffing, you’re likely dodging 15 outs on Turn and River.

– With this flop texture, the villain can’t have both a flush draw and an Ace.

– Without the Tc in your hand, you’re not blocking these hands (KTcc, QTcc, JTcc).

– After donk-betting 50% of the pot, you need to break-even win 33% of the time.

– About 1/3 or 33% of your 3-betting range actually prefers an ace on the flop.

– Your range has stronger Ax than the villains.

– The villain has more Ax combos than you do.

– Folding on the flop is only a loss of 6 bb.

– Folding on the turn is only a loss of 13 bb (6 bb preflop + 7 bb on flop).

I understand the chase. I’ve had the opposite occur where the guy donk-bets an ace high flop and I fold TT and they show a weaker hand. That sucks too.

But losing 6 bb is far better than losing 100 bb.

[arw]

Recap

1) No Gap

There will be 9 combos of sets and between 16 – 48 combos of straights

i.e. – AKQ — only one way to flop a straight (JT) — 16 combos

i.e. – 987 — two ways to flop a straight (JT, 65) — 32 combos

2) One-Gap

There will be 9 combos of sets and between 16 – 32 straight combos

i.e. – AKJ — only one way to flop a straight (QT) — 16 combos

i.e. – T97 — two ways to flop a straight (J8, 86) — 32 combos

3) Two-Gap

There will be 9 combos of sets and only 16 straight combos

i.e. – AKT — only one way to flop a straight (QJ) — 16 combos

4) Pair on Flop

There will be 1 combo of quads and 9 combos of full-house.

i.e. – AA2 —

There are 3 combos of 22 full-house and 6 combos of A2 full-house

5) Trips on Flop

To analyze this flop, I look at starting hands. There are 12 pocket pairs that have flopped a full-house. To have quads, you can’t have a pocket pair. Thus, of the 2 dealt cards, one way to deal quads and 12 other cards possible for the 2nd card. Thus, there are 12 specific hands that can flop quads. This means there are (12 * 16) = 192 hand combos. This number is large but remember, it can be reduced.

i.e. – Let’s say you open with AA from the button and the bb defends. The flop is KKK. There are only 12 specific hands that the bb defends with that contain a K. However, we can reduce 192 combos by eliminating some hands based on their tendencies. I would argue that AK and maybe KQ would re-raise, not defend. It’s more likely that suited Kx will be defended and off-suit Kx might fold. Also, Kx with low kickers are more likely to be folded than higher kickers.

_____________

Ummm, what about suited-ness?

With 13 ranks (A, K, Q, J, T, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2),

– There are 12 ways to be dealt a suited ace like AK, AQ, or A2 where each has 4 suited options (AKss, AKhh, AKdd, AKcc). Thus, there are a total of 48 combos of Ax suited that can be dealt to a player.

6) Monotone flops

When the flop is all one suit, there are 48 combos of suited Ax however only 1 suit is on the board, this means only (48 / 4) = 12 combos of the flopped nut flush.

7) Two-tone flops

These flops are common and they cause havoc on counting combos. Let’s say that you open from the button and the bb 3-bets. Here are some talking points:

i.e. — The flop is QcTc3h

Our opponent CANNOT have top pair and have a flush draw. (AQcc not possible)

i.e. — The flop is QhTc3c

Our opponent CAN have top pair and a flush draw. (AQcc is a strong hand)

Lastly, your hand might have blockers that reduce the combos for connectedness and suitedness.

If the flop is QcTc3c, the most dangerous hands are (QQ, TT, 33, QT, AQ, KQ, KJ, J9). If you’re holding AhJc, the number of dangerous combos is reduced for hands like (AQ, KJ, J9). Specifically, the opponent can’t hold AJcc, KJcc or J9cc.

By knowing the combos, you will simply make better decisions at the poker table.

[arw]

@rabman50 @EANDERSON85

Ok, now suppose you open to 300 for all these hands.

Your opponent 3-bets you to 1,000.

What is your action?

a. Fold

b. Call 700 more

c. 4-bet to 2,500

d. 4-bet all in for 9,700

[arw]

“most people know to never donk”

There are many reasons why donk betting is risky:

— out of position

— usually don’t have the initiative

— inflating the pot first to act

Whether I donk-bet or not completely depends on my opponents tendencies.

If the opponent will c-bet or double barrel often enough, I might plan to check/raise on the flop or turn. For example, I defend with 23 suited and the flop is A23. For me, I prefer donk-betting here against most players. I likely have the best hand and yet, my hand is vulnerable to Ax and pocket pairs….the most likely hands that call on the flop. Also, the probability of getting counterfeited with bottom two pair is about (40/47)*(3/46) = 5% if you assume the board hits the same card twice in a row (i.e. turn 6, river 6 or turn J, river J).

If my opponent has a tighter range, the board texture might make me donk-bet the flop or turn as a bluff. For example, the board reads J83, I might plan to donk-bet turn cards like 9 or 7…simply because the tighter range is less likely to hit this board and it should look dangerous to AK, AQ high, or top pair AJ. The over-pairs AA and KK might even think carefully about whether to call or raise a donk-bet on the board J839.

Lastly, when the board texture includes a possible flush, a donk-bet looks kind of fishy….but it can be effective. For example, if the board reads Js8s3s (monotone). This is a scary board for any hand that doesn’t include a set, two-pair, small flush, or big flush draw. All other hands should pass, right? In my opinion, it’s common for players in position and with the initiative to check-back these monotone flops. If they do check back, donk-betting the turn card is a good play the majority of the time in my opinion.

[arw]

Thank you,

I worked hard at it.

I’ve found one typo — I wrote “be” instead of “bet” but the context was obvious.

[arw]

Can you explain the Table w/ SPR 1, 2, 3, 4..?

I’m not sure I follow — is this for two streets?

Hoping you can elaborate on how your chart works. Can you provide an example?

Example

Pot = $100 — You have SPR = 1.5 or $150

The chart says bet 50%

Thus, you bet 50% of $100 — $50

The opponent calls, you have $100 left and the pot is $200

My examples were based on applying max pressure by betting “the pot” — all in.

For my approach with SPR 1.5,

You should bet:

— $20 with $130 left — the pot would be $100 + $20 * 2 = $140

— this gives you almost a full pot sized bet on the next street

or

— $25 with $125 left — the pot would be $100 + $25 * 2 = $150

— this gives you almost a full pot sized bet on the next street

This sizing is small and enticing to call. This means that a lot of drawing hands and made hands will likely call. I would expect a large calling range. On the next street, the plan is to go all-in and apply maximum pressure. A large portion of the range that called on the flop will likely fold the turn to big bet. You don’t necessarily need to have it in this spot. If you open say 22+, ATs+, KJo+ and some others, part of your jamming hands should include bluffs where you missed the flop, yet your range is stronger, you have position, and the initiative.

_____

Again, I want to flip the coin.

If you pay close attention to chip stacks, you might see an opponent setting up the jam. Let’s act as the villain and call the $22 bet on the flop. The pot is $144 and the opponent only has ($150 – $22 = $128). The opponent has very few options with only 1 pot sized bet left. The countermove to them jamming the turn would be to lead out into them for about 1/4 – 1/3 their stack. You can bet $35 into them and all of sudden, they are thinking about:

— less leverage than when it goes check push (only $93, not $128)

— the villain is betting into me, I can’t bluff anymore, they will likely call because my raise is only $93 more.

Leading out in this spot is very effective. It can be profitable.

— you’re taking the initiative, being aggressive, and putting your opponent to a decision for all the chips.

— you offer good calling odds but with these stack depths, the opponent should either push or fold, rarely call.

— this play narrows your opponents possible actions (push or fold)

— By betting only $35 to win $144 — this is low risk, high reward.

[arw]

Good point @ImaLouigi

A 3-bet of $35 makes more sense than $25. I thought that was goofy.

[arw]

@FiveByFive

I completely agree with @PetVet. This is not a JAM spot with those stack sizes.

With 37 bb, why risk 26 bb in this pre-flop spot?

If the villain opens 3 bb, you could comfortably raise to 8 – 9 bb. My sizing is ideally between 1/4 – 1/3 of the opponents stack. If they 4-bet, I’m likely folding.

If you 3-bet:

– takes the initiative (flop c-bet coming!!!)

– applies pressure

– minimizes risk (9 bb)

If you jam:

– applies maximum pressure (only the nuts will call)

– maximizes risk (26 bb)

[arw]

Sorry,

The numbers can get overwhelming but it’s how I breakdown hands. It makes me consider every pathway of the decision tree and hopefully lead to better assumptions & estimates.