[imalouigi]

I prefer a flop bet and sized up (22-25K) to set up a turn jam. Especially if we are 7 from the money, I want to put pressure on my opponents and charge all of their draws.

As played, I prefer a call on the raised turn to evaluate the river.

I am sigh calling off most rivers as I agree this is not a spot to hero fold but if a jack or ten falls, we can fold and preserve 17 bbs.

[imalouigi]

Situation #2 – I like the smaller C/R sizing as it sets up a good SPR to shove on the turn. We don’t want a fold from over pairs here and C/R too large gives our V an opportunity to get away from their hand We started with 30 bbs. If our opponent happens to have a bigger set or a flush OTT, gg. We still have outs vs. flushes. I am C/R to set up a jam on all turns with this board texture.

I wouldn’t do anything different here than as played, especially considering how flat the payouts are at this point in the tournament. It’s a spot we have to take.

I’d rather get four flushed out the door. The ace on the river is max pain.

[imalouigi]

Situation #1 — out of position on the bubble, I prefer a jam here. We want see all 5 cards vs. V’s calling range.

I would prefer a smaller 3-bet sizing if anything (not larger). Sizing up works against us in that it reduces our SPR (stack to pot ratio) if V calls. The smaller our SPR, the less fold equity we have lead shoving the flop. If we choose not to jam, I would prefer 40K for a 3-bet sizing which sets up ~ 1.25 to 1 vs. 0.84 to 1 as played. This makes it harder for the hands we want to fold to get away when we miss flop.

[imalouigi]

Good responses here from @FiveByFive & @TaylorMaas Slam dunk jam with 12 bbs and still 13 from the money.

I do think if we are 3 from the money at this stack depth, our decision is much more interesting. I think jam, call & even open fold are all on the table.

ICM is a lot more complicated than that the juxtaposition of “playing to win” vs. protecting our stack (i.e being “nitty”) to make the money. Keep in mind that a double on the bubble (assuming 3 from the money) still puts us at or below the average stack so how much EV do we really gain from winning 4.5 BB’s or even doubling? The flip side of that debate is that we don’t know how many opportunities we will have to pick up a premium hand in a turbo structure.

What would you guys do in this scenario?

[imalouigi]

Never folding here vs. this specific opponent. It’s actually a terrible play on his part with a value hand as this is literally the bottom of your calling range. You have almost all of the diamond flush combos defending BB so he folds out most value hands and gets called by worse that beats him. I am probably snap calling the jam. Sick cooler on the turn 6.

[imalouigi]

Nice point @FiveByFive quantifying how many specific hands are beating us here and if we can add in A4o combos, how much more bleak it really is for us in this spot.

I thought it was a fold but was on the time bank … and still in the rebuy period .. and it’s online where we do sometimes see weird hands (not just overplayed AK) that you would almost never see live … so I sigh called. Thought folding and being wrong here was worse than calling and being wrong.

This is probably a leak but it’s a spot I probably can fold live but can’t online.

V did have the AA which makes perfect sense as played.

[imalouigi]

With SPR on the river being ~ .70, I am just calling turn as V is likely going to be shoving for value with all kings and even lesser 1-pair hands for value. Villain will also have to bluff shove missed draws as played. I think this is a dream spot to sit back and catch the trophy 🙂

Never folding to a river shove heads-up even if the front or back door flush gets there

My question for you is if V checks back river, what is our bet sizing? I would think a shove is likely getting a fold so should we make a micro bet to either get called light or induce a bluff shove? Maybe something silly like 1.5 bbs?

[imalouigi]

5-bet jamming here is never a bad play but it makes our hand face up and we should be willing to flat a % of the time, especially with a 100 bb starting stack and vs. described hyper aggro villain.

Our SPR will be less than 2-1 on the flop so there are lots of ways to get it in post-flop. We can C/R flop or check/call likely flop and turn (or river) 2-barrels from the V. If we do take this line, however, I don’t think we can fold any textures including vs. an ace on the board.

I prefer a mixed strategy with KK/AA vs. hyper aggro 4-bet. Always 5-betting is a mistake IMO.

[imalouigi]

Definitely don’t want to raise flop as it allows our opponent to play perfectly against us (call with better & fold worse). I am pretty happy bluff-catching flop and turn esp vs. V’s stack size.

I could see a line where V is checking turn unless they pick up equity which sets up a nice turn all-in with a good SPR. Not sure how to weight the near all-in but I am evaluating this as an all-in bet.

The only thing you might do different is folding pre-flop if V is tight and 3-betting your UTG open sets off alarm bells. But, as played, you can’t fold post flop.

[imalouigi]

We are not getting the right odds to call this turn bet with what could be the sucker end of a straight if the Jack hits on the river. Our straight outs are also not clean with 2 flush draws on the board.

Sounds like you realized pretty quickly this call is a pretty massive mistake. I prefer fold vs. C/R on the turn.

Very happy to get in a C/R on the flop but I also would worry that V is likely to check-back here often. I would consider a lead on the flop as you already identified this board greatly favors our range which we can represent (with only 8 high). Would likely double barrel on all non-Broadway turns regardless if I take a C/R or lead line on this flop.

[imalouigi]

@FiveByFive The reason I shared this hand was my initial thought in-game was the opposite…the Ah unaccounted for could potentially give me a very thin equity advantage. When I ran the hand through poker cruncher later, even if I give one of my opponents (in a heads-up pot) only Ah10x+ and Ah2x-Ah5x (which is an absolute best case scenario for me) my hand is still only 48% to win.

Add in all Axhh combos, KK, QQ & 10-10 … and another opponent … and we are crushed!

I thought it was interesting because I was clearly overvaluing the concept of an unblocker in-game but after reviewing the spot, it wasn’t really close.

I did end up calling the raise on the flop (SB also called) and then folded turn unimproved. There is no doubt my flop call was a mistake. As @elvida pointed out, our outs were not clean.

[imalouigi]

One point that I don’t think have been mentioned is that your small pre-flop raise size does make it more likely for your opponents to be holding QJ (all combos) and 76 (likely just 4 suited combos). If you use a larger 3-bet sizing, it makes it easier to more narrowly define their defend ranges and for you to continue here without a second thought. I would prefer closer to $35 for a pre-flop raise size.

If this was a tournament, you can consider a hero fold because of above. In a cash game this is an insta-call especially with the amount of money already in the pot.

I know it was already mentioned a few times, but if you are not taking spots like this because of not wanting to go bust you are making a big mistake. You would be better off saving up to play when you have 2 or 3 full buy-ins and set that as a stop loss.

[imalouigi]

Definitely prefer a flat on the button vs. a single open. I think the 3-bet line makes more sense if you have a single opponent who is opening too wide (no info that is the case here) or are multi-way spot with a cold call after the initial open.

I like just calling the flop but I would be putting in a raise on the turn, especially with the Js in our hand. We should be willing to go with it here (especially vs. a shorter stack) if we get 3-bet jammed on.

As played, this is a gross river spot. It seems at first blush this is a polarizing spot but there is a % of the time that V is over jamming to steal away a chop. Since we block full houses and flushes, I probably time bank and end up calling this off.

[imalouigi]

If the stacks were reversed, this makes complete sense. However, since button covers SB (and not the other way around), isn’t this ICM suicide for SB? I don’t understand this play and am very curious to have someone give some insight/rationale for the shove.

Wouldn’t a raise to 5 bb make more sense? It would price in the BB and then the button would overcall and (implicit collusion) they can check it down to the river?

This spot has me scratching my head and now I want to hear more!

[imalouigi]

We can very strongly discount KQ as V checked back this favorable flop. We should expect V to be continuation betting here almost 100%, without a made hand, as the pre-flop aggressor. V is happy getting a fold with KQ here or building a pot with a very strong drawing hand in position.

I do agree there are not too many back door flushes in his range from a LJ open.

I am leading river for value as the river Ace is fantastic for his calling range. I would bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot, targeting calls by all aces and most jacks. There are not many natural bluffs to try an induce here and V will be checking back a lot of hands with showdown value.

[imalouigi]

This is a clear raise, especially in a cash game. I am sizing 7 or 8 bbs. We are out of position and want to narrow the field. If we limp, we are almost exclusively set mining as there are few flops where we are comfortable even with an over pair to low cards. I agree we need to size larger than a standard raise size because of 3 opponents, our specific hand and being out of position. We are trying to isolate against one opponent.

There are some tourney spots where I don’t mind completing here depending on effective stacks. But you are going to see a situation like this very, very rarely in a tourney.

[imalouigi]

I am sure you are aware of this but you are are getting more folds than calls here so that adds +EV to a shove. There’s that dynamic both live & even online where some players want to try and assert dominance when they get a table change so V’s 3-betting range in this spot can we weighted wider than typical for UTG+1 in my opinion.

I still slightly prefer a jam over a call because of 1.) being out of position and 2.) SPR on future streets … but both jam and call pre have merits. A call allows us to continue carefully with a still healthy stack…and fold if we flop poorly.

I do not think good opponents are calling off with 10’s here (many are folding JJ as well) to answer your question specifically.

I do not like leading this flop and definitely not this sizing. This is not a good flop for either of our ranges so we are getting a high percentage of folds when we lead which we don’t want. Us leading eliminates the opportunity for our opponent to bluff as well as folding out hands like A5s, 77, 88 & 99, AK & AQ + some random hands that our opponent likely would have continuation bet on this flop. If we are going to lead, it should be a much smaller bet to try and induce a raise. I think this is a slam dunk C/R shove at these stack depths.

Regardless of what card comes, your flop sizing also highlights our SPR problem moving forward. If we bet small on flop & V just calls, we will have a better SPR to leverage on a later street if needed. However, as played with this big bet the V is getting such a good price they are going to call a turn shove with just about any reasonable equity. I would prefer a flop overbet shove over the 12 bb bet you used because 1.) it looks fishier on the surface and can frequently induce lighter calls from our opponents — but 2.) really we are using that tool because of understanding the important of SPR on future streets. Does that make sense?

I still think C/R flop is the best line by a mile.

As played, I am probably shipping the turn and holding my breath. And taking notes for a HH review 🙂

[imalouigi]

One part of this review that you are missing is that your flop sizing is very problematic as it leaves you with about a .5 to 1 SPR. It almost completely eliminates your ability to get folds on future streets. I would either bet much smaller OTF (like 20% on this wet & coordinated board), check…or even consider over bet jamming based on V’s. A half sized pot bet here is a mistake. SPR (stack to pot ratio) is so critical in thinking about bet sizing and the impact it will have on future streets. We are shooting ourself in the foot when we reduce our ability to leverage fold equity on later streets.

It sounds like the SB had been making a higher than normal % of 3-bets when you went 4-handed which strengthens a case for a pre-flop jam. Especially if the button is not playing a mixed over call strategy (which they are likely not) and has a capped range. I prefer folding over jamming. When raise or fold are both viable options, making a compromising call is almost always the worst line.

[imalouigi]

Thanks for the feedback gents. I think l @FiveByFive hits the nail on the head. Even though we are getting a ridiculously good price OTT, this turn card is disastrous for us and V’s super small lead is overwhelmingly weighted to nutted value. My takeaway is that we need to find a fold on the turn. Our hand goes from amazing to almost worthless.

I strongly considered 3-betting the flop but ultimately decided against it because our hand is so concealed relative to our perceived range that V should be sticky if we improve (especially hitting the straight) OTT allowing us to get paid off for at least another street.

Hero did fold the river. I just don’t see any bluffs in his line especially with the turn down bet. V did later tell hero he turned the boat but then said he couldn’t remember with which two cards ????‍♂️ so who knows?!

[imalouigi]

Using a down size bet here is a good play especially with this board texture. However, I don’t like going with such a micro sizing when we have a strong range as the 3-bettor. V should be calling with ~100% of his range with this sizing. It makes more sense to me to push exploitatively small bet sizing when we have little or no equity (or have all of the equity). I still prefer closer to 20% pot bet on the flop if we are going to push the exploit. I agree with @FiveByFive that 1/3 pot is a good sizing for our entire 3-bet range if we are going to bet. I prefer bet > check but checking is not bad.